Farage’s Brexit Party takes sensational lead in Euro-election poll

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage

Just days after its launch, Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party has taken the lead in a sensational new YouGov opinion poll, released just an hour ago.

Former UKIP leader Farage established the Brexit Party after quitting UKIP due to his successor Gerard Batten having aligned the party with Islam-obsessed characters such as ‘Tommy Robinson’ of the English Defence League.

The new poll surveys voting intentions for the European Parliamentary elections, now due to take place on May 23rd, almost two months after the UK was meant to have left the European Union. Delays to Brexit mean we are obliged to hold these elections, even though in theory our exit from the EU has only been postponed until October 31st.

It shows the Brexit Party on 27% with Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour on 22% and Theresa May’s (theoretically) governing Conservatives on just 15%. The Greens are on 10%, followed by the Liberal Democrats on 9%, UKIP on 7%, and the newly-registered Change UK (a rebranding of the pro-EU Independent Group of MPs) on 6%.

Perhaps the only saving grace for UKIP is that (unlike the Brexit Party) it has candidates in local council elections being held across most of England on May 2nd. Batten’s party badly needs some very impressive results at those elections if it is to avoid being completely overshadowed by its rival.


Final candidate totals for 2019 local elections

With today’s release of nominations for local authority elections in Northern Ireland, H&D can now publish our calculation of the final candidate totals for the UK’s various eurosceptic / nationalist political parties.

Not all of these parties are in any way racial nationalist, and not all racial nationalists are in any way eurosceptic, but we publish this list for our readers’ interest in showing the state of British electoral politics everywhere to the right of the Conservative Party.

Perhaps even “right” is not the correct word, but it is from somewhere within this spectrum that a new force will have to be drawn to rescue the United Kingdom from its multiracial / multicultural chaos of recent decades.

UKIP has eighteen candidates in various parts of Ulster, given them a total of 1,400 candidates across the UK for the scheduled local council elections, plus three mayoral candidates and about twenty in local by-elections that are also being held on May 2nd.

In other words UKIP will be contesting 16% of the available seats this year

Anne Marie Waters’ For Britain Movement has no candidates in Ulster, so their total remains 42.

Democrats & Veterans have three Ulster candidates, giving them 20 nationwide, plus a by-election candidate in the London Borough of Lewisham.

The new party Aontú, on which H&D recently reported, is a socially conservative and eurosceptic split from both Sinn Féin and the SDLP (north of the border) and Fianna Fáil south of the border. Aontú has sixteen candidates in various parts of Northern Ireland: an impressive total for a very new party.

Jolene Bunting, originally elected as a councillor for Traditional Unionist Voice, later became associated with the anti-Islamist group Britain First, which has failed to register as a political party but is supporting two independent candidates for English councils. Ms Bunting is standing as an Independent in the Court area of Belfast. It is not clear to H&D precisely what her present relationship is with Britain First following some internal rows last year.

TUV themselves have 32 local authority candidates this year.

So the updated candidate totals are as follows:

  • UKIP 1,400
  • For Britain 42
  • Traditional Unionist Voice 32
  • Democrats & Veterans 20
  • Aontú 16
  • English Democrats 10
  • Veterans & People’s Party 7
  • Our Nation 5
  • National Front 3
  • Populist 3
  • Britain First (standing as Independents) 3
  • British Democrats 2
  • BNP 2
  • British Resistance 1
  • Patria 1
  • Independents 3

For further details check our earlier articles on election nominations here and here.

H&D will continue to report on the local election campaign, and will include a comprehensive report on the results in our next issue, which as a consequence will appear slightly later than normal in early May.

UKIP misses broadcast target as NF overtakes dying BNP

UKIP leader Gerard Batten (left) with EDL founder Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (alias ‘Tommy Robinson’) whose increasingly close relationship with the party has prompted Nigel Farage and others to resign.

The United Kingdom Independence Party will have 1,382 candidates at the local council elections on May 2nd, according to an analysis by Heritage and Destiny. Our estimate is based on documents from 270 English councils and does not yet include Northern Ireland, where candidate totals have not yet been published. (There will also be a few UKIP local by-election candidates, and three Mayoral candidates on the same day.)

This is less than half the number that UKIP had aimed for to qualify for a television broadcast.

However even to reach this number (given the collapse of many UKIP branches) involved a colossal effort by the party’s national headquarters, twisting the arms of local members.

There are several councils where UKIP even its present state has managed to put up a full slate of candidates for every vacancy: these include Derby, Sunderland, North Tyneside, Worcester, Bolton and Eastleigh.

Alan Graves, leader of the UKIP group on Derby City Council, one of the party’s most successful branches

However there are others where the party is now reduced to a token effort or has disappeared from the electoral map: these include Blackpool, Fylde, Lincoln, Basildon, Solihull and Middlesbrough. Most notably UKIP has been almost obliterated in its former strongholds of Thurrock (where it is down to two candidates) and Thanet (a council UKIP used to control but now has only three candidates). Numerous former UKIP councillors are standing in these areas as ‘Thurrock Independents’ or ‘Thanet Independents’.

The good news for Gerard Batten’s party is that in the absence of his most important rival Nigel Farage – whose new Brexit Party is sitting out these local elections and concentrating on potential European and General Elections later this year – UKIP has comfortably outshone three other splinter parties. We are not yet aware of any local council candidates formally designated as ‘Brexit Party’, though in practice a number of ‘Thanet Independents’ and ‘Thurrock Independents’ will probably end up following Farage.

The For Britain Movement founded by former UKIP leadership candidate Anne Marie Waters will have 42 council candidates nationwide, according to H&D‘s analysis. These include eight in Leeds; four in the West Midlands racial battleground of Sandwell; three in Stoke; and perhaps most significantly two in Epping Forest. These latter two – former BNP councillor Patricia Richardson and former BNP London mayoral candidate Julian Leppert – are among the few candidates from the broad spectrum of British nationalism who have a chance of winning this year.

Anne Marie Waters on the by-election campaign trail with former BNP election guru Eddy Butler, who now runs For Britain’s strongest branch

Another UKIP splinter group Democrats & Veterans, founded by former UKIP leadership candidate John Rees-Evans, has 17 candidates in the main local elections, plus one in a London Borough of Lewisham by-election. The strongest D&V branches are in Yorkshire, where they have three candidates in Barnsley and three in Sheffield.

The English Democrats won over a few BNP defectors during 2010-2011, and though most of this group have since left the party, ED leader Robin Tilbrook has scored a publicity coup in recent weeks after launching a legal action to rescue Brexit. The EDs have ten local council candidates this year, including six in Barnsley. In the Derbyshire borough of Amber Valley their sole candidate is former NF and BNP activist Mick Sharpe.

The Veterans’ and People’s Party has a manifesto that combines independence from European control with some traditionally socialist / social democratic policies on housing and welfare. Their interim leader is Robin Horsfall, an SAS veteran of the famous Iranian Embassy siege in 1980. VAPP have seven candidates in different council areas.

UKIP’s short-lived leader Henry Bolton, who was forced to quit in February 2018, now leads a tiny party of loyal followers called Our Nation: they have five candidates this year, all but one of them in Dover.

NF candidate for Brunshaw ward, Burnley, Steven Smith (left)

There are no elections this year in London or Birmingham, which has drastically reduced the number of potential National Front candidates. In fact there are just three NF council candidates this year: deputy chairman Jordan Pont in Sheffield; Chris Jackson in Calderdale; and Steven Smith in Burnley.

Despite this relatively modest campaign, 2019 might go down in history as the year the NF overtook the BNP. The truth is that the NF has for a year or two now been much the more significant nationalist organisation, in all but the financial sense. Nevertheless it will shock many observers that the BNP are down to just two council candidates this year, one in Broxbourne and the other in Sevenoaks.

Dr Jim Lewthwaite, British Democrats chairman and one of last year’s most successful nationalist candidates.

The British Democrats (mostly made up of former BNP members) will have two candidates this year. Former councillor Dr Jim Lewthwaite again contests Wyke ward, Bradford, where he achieved one of last year’s best nationalist results; while Kevan Stafford contests Loughborough Shelthorpe ward, Charnwood.

Former BNP organiser Dr Andrew Emerson continues to run his breakaway party Patria, and will again be the party’s sole candidate in Chichester.

Similarly the British Resistance party, closely associated with controversial ex-UKIP candidate Jack Sen, will have just one candidate this year – Mr Sen’s ally Carl Mason in Worcester.

Several prominent nationalists are supporting the Populist Party‘s campaign in Sunderland, where they will have two candidates in the scheduled May 2nd elections, plus a third in a by-election held the same day.

Pete Molloy, an Independent nationalist candidate in Spennymoor

There are also several veteran nationalists standing as Independents or without a party label this year. These include Pete Molloy in Spennymoor ward, Durham; Alan Girvan in Heckmondwike ward, Kirklees; and Joe Owens in Kensington & Fairfield ward, Liverpool.

The eager publicity-seekers of Britain First have failed to register with the Electoral Commission as a political party, so their name cannot appear on ballot papers. However Paul Rudge (a Britain First activist) will be standing as an independent in Rowley ward, Sandwell, as will his Britain First colleague Geoff Miles in Ware Trinity ward, East Hertfordshire.

Summary of eurosceptic / nationalist candidate totals at 2019 local council elections:

  • UKIP 1,382
  • For Britain 42
  • Democrats & Veterans 17
  • English Democrats 10
  • Veterans’ and People’s Party 7
  • Our Nation 5
  • National Front 3
  • Populist 3
  • British Democrats 2
  • BNP 2
  • Britain First (standing as independents) 2
  • British Resistance 1
  • Patria 1
  • Independents 3

Political Vacuum at 2019 Elections

Despite the Great Brexit Betrayal at Westminster, this year’s local elections bear witness to a vacuum where nationalist (and even eurosceptic) politics used to exist.

Nominations closed this afternoon with polling day on May 2nd, and though many councils have yet to publish their lists of candidates, it seems from H&D‘s early analysis that UKIP and its various splinters have put up smaller slates than expected, though almost everywhere UKIP remains well ahead of its rivals For Britain and Democrats & Veterans.

An exception is Epping Forest, where an efficient For Britain branch directed by former BNP election guru Eddy Butler is fielding two candidates, both of them ex-BNP, compared to one for UKIP. Former BNP councillor Mrs Patricia Richardson in Waltham Abbey Honey Lane and former London mayoral candidate Julian Leppert in Waltham Abbey Paternoster have already carried out extensive leafletting and are among the very few nationalist candidates with any chance of winning this year. Elsewhere in the borough English Democrat leader Robin Tilbrook is contesting his home ward of Chipping Ongar.

Stoke-on-Trent, once a jewel in the BNP crown, now elects its full complement of councillors once every four years, so 2019 should have been an important opportunity for both UKIP and Anne Marie Waters’ For Britain Movement, who presently have their sole councillor here.

Some anti-fascist “experts” had predicted a big slate of For Britain candidates here: in fact there are only three, including incumbent councillor Richard Broughan. Similarly UKIP have just three Stoke candidates.

A more impressive showing for Ms Waters’ party is in Leeds, where they are contesting eight of the 33 vacancies – in three of these they will have no UKIP opponent. UKIP have 16 Leeds candidates, and in Bramley & Stanningley ward voters will have UKIP, For Britain and the English Democrats on their ballot paper!

Another failure is in Burnley, where UKIP is contesting only three of the 15 wards and For Britain none. While racial nationalist parties are conspicuous by their absence from most ballot papers, there is one National Front candidate in Burnley – former BNP organiser Steven Smith, who we are pleased to note will have no UKIP opposition in the Brunshaw ward.

Other NF candidates so far declared include the party’s deputy chairman Jordan Pont in East Ecclesfield ward, Sheffield (where he unfortunately has UKIP opposition); and Chris Jackson in his home ward of Todmorden, Calderdale. Like Steven Smith, Chris has no UKIP opposition. Across Sheffield, UKIP are contesting 22 of the 28 vacancies, while D&V have three candidates, only one of whom has UKIP opposition. In Calderdale there are no UKIP candidates at all, and just one For Britain candidate.

Dr Jim Lewthwaite of the British Democrats

Former councillor Dr Jim Lewthwaite is again contesting Wyke ward, Bradford, for the British Democrats. He has no UKIP or D&V opponent and can expect a creditable result. The British Democrats are also contesting Loughborough Shelthorpe ward in Charnwood, Leicestershire.

Elsewhere in Bradford there are nine UKIP candidates, one from D&V, and none from For Britain, even though the latter’s head office is in the city!

For Britain (like the National Front before them) focused much campaigning energy in Rochdale following various Asian/Muslim scandals, but this has produced nothing electorally: UKIP will contest 16 of the 20 Rochdale wards, For Britain none. Even more startling is the total absence of nationalist/eurosceptic parties in Blackpool, an area that voted 75% for Brexit and where (as in Rochdale) there has been extensive campaigning by a range of anti-Islamist groups. For Britain supporters have talked for some time about targeting Blackpool, but they have not fielded a single candidate, and this year there will be no-one from Blackpool UKIP on the ballot paper either.

A similarly rare example of UKIP progress (at least in terms of candidates) is Oldham, where there is a serious slate of 14 UKIP candidates – though not the full slate of 20 that gullible “anti-fascists” had predicted. In nearby Tameside, UKIP have five candidates, Democrats & Veterans one, and For Britain none; while in Stockport there are six UKIP candidates and none from D&V or FB.

Yet another hopelessly inaccurate prediction by lavishly funded “anti-fascist experts” was in Hartlepool, where UKIP was said to have collapsed in favour of For Britain. In fact For Britain has just one candidate in Hartlepool, compared to three for UKIP, one for Democrats & Veterans, and a profusion of independents.

Thanks to boundary changes the most racially divided borough in England – Blackburn with Darwen – has an all-out election, so as in Stoke this should have been a bonanza year for any party seeking to recover some of the votes once cast for the BNP and the England First Party. Yet UKIP have just four candidates, and For Britain none.

Across the Pennines, UKIP is contesting only five of 21 vacancies in Wakefield; and eight out of 23 in Kirklees.

The English Democrats have staged a mini-revival in Barnsley, perhaps helped by the bold action of their leader Robin Tilbrook in launching a legal action to rescue Brexit. There are six EDs here (for 21 vacancies), compared to just three for UKIP and three from the UKIP splinter group Democrats & Veterans. D&V also have two candidates in Kirklees. Another English Democrat candidate is former NF and BNP activist Mick Sharpe, contesting Ripley & Marehay ward, Amber Valley.

In Sunderland UKIP have managed a full slate of 26 candidates, while For Britain and D&V each have just one. Elsewhere in the North-East the eurosceptic cause is less vigorous: Gateshead has seven UKIP candidates for 22 vacancies. Darlington is one of the very few councils anywhere in England where UKIP (with two candidates) has been overtaken by For Britain (with three). In Cheshire East the former UKIP councillor Brian Silvester (who has been re-elected unopposed as a parish councillor) is the sole For Britain candidate, and there is no-one from UKIP.

Another former nationalist heartland where none of the existing parties is reaping electoral potential is the West Midlands borough of Sandwell. UKIP and For Britain each have just four candidates here for 24 vacancies: the only good news is that only one ward has the parties fighting each other. Next door in Dudley there are fourteen UKIP candidates and none from For Britain.

Among the many former UKIP strongholds where the party has collapsed is Thurrock, where almost the entire former UKIP branch has regrouped as ‘Thurrock Independents’. They will have a full slate of seventeen candidates, while UKIP have only two. Similarly there are only three UKIP candidates this year in Thanet, where they once controlled the council and Nigel Farage once hoped to become an MP. The bulk of Thanet’s UKIP activists now call themselves ‘Thanet Independents’. Like their Thurrock counterparts, they will probably end up in Farage’s new Brexit Party, but this is gearing up to fight European (and perhaps General) elections, not local councils. For Britain has one Thanet candidate – ex-BNP parliamentary candidate Michael Barnbrook.

Veteran nationalist Joe Owens is contesting the Kensington & Fairfield ward of his native Liverpool, without a party description, but can be expected to run a professional campaign. Other nationalist independents include Paul Rudge, a Britain First activist standing in Rowley ward, Sandwell, with the party’s backing but without its name on the ballot paper; and former BNP activist Pete Molloy, standing in the Spennymoor ward of Durham.

During the next two days as councils continue to publish their lists of candidates, H&D will carry out a complete analysis of the nationalist/eurosceptic electoral picture, and of course our next edition will report on the election results and our movement’s prospects for recovery.

So far this year’s local election picture can be summarised as follows: UKIP has collapsed in many former strongholds, rather as the BNP did before its eventual death, while retaining pockets of strength. While his embrace of radical anti-Islamism has contributed to UKIP’s implosion, party leader Gerard Batten has the consolation that this same strategy has probably helped to stifle the For Britain Movement, whose founder Anne Marie Waters had hoped that anti-Islamism would be her party’s unique selling point.

Though failing to make a breakthrough in terms of defections from UKIP and overall candidate numbers, For Britain can reasonably hope to elect one or two councillors – perhaps in Stoke, perhaps in Epping Forest, perhaps in Thanet.

Overall however – while in past years we would have been looking at dozens of racial nationalist councillors, and hundreds of UKIP councillors – this year’s elections are likely merely to confirm the continuing crisis of both nationalism and euroscepticism, despite an obvious public appetite for alternatives to the Westminster charade.


U.S. Mid-Term Election Results Mixed, But Demographics Doom Republicans

(by James Knight for H&D)

The mid-term elections took place on November 6 in the United States. They were seen – correctly – as a referendum on President Donald Trump. In general, the results point to some trouble ahead for Trump. Despite a very strong economy, complete with low unemployment, Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives. They are now down by about 37 seats to the Democrats. On the other hand, the party increased its control of the Senate by one and now hold a two-seat lead in that chamber of Congress.

 

Most parties in power get defeated – often quite badly – in the mid-term elections. Trump’s losses are somewhat less that those suffered by Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama in 1994, 2006 and 2010 respectively. Democrats had a significant advantage in fund raising as almost all of Hollywood and the ultra-rich US elite support “The Resistance” against Trump. And nearly every single close election recount had Democrats winning over Republicans, which was almost certainly due to election stealing/tampering (more common in the US than many suppose).

The demographics of the election show the usual breakdowns. Non-whites voted for Democrats with the following percentages:

Blacks – 90%

Asians – 77%

Hispanics – 69%

Actually, Trump did slightly better among non-whites in 2016 than previous Republicans such as Mitt Romney and John McCain.

Among whites, Republicans only won by a margin of 54% to 44%. White men broke 60% to 39% for Republicans while white women were split 49% to 49%. The fact that so many whites decided to vote for Democrats is a big warning sign for Republicans. For years, the Republican party has been drifting toward becoming the party of white people. With roughly 80% of non-whites voting Democrats, and with the electorate getting less and less white with every election, the writing is on the wall for the GOP. Unless Trump can get the white vote up to 60% Republican in 2020, he will likely lose reelection.

Donald Trump pursuing the white working class vote in West Virginia during his 2016 presidential campaign

Working class whites in states such as Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania gave the election to Trump in 2016. This was due to his stance on issues such as immigration and trade and his populist rhetoric on economic issues. This base has been slowly drifting away from Trump in the last two years.

Likewise, the Dissident Right, which also came out for Trump in 2016, has been disappointed with his performance in the last two year. Ann Coulter routinely calls out Trump on Twitter for his tough talk but inaction on a border wall, birthright citizenship and stopping caravans of illegal immigrants. Gregory Hood of American Renaissance is even more blunt:

“President Trump has governed like a moderate, while speaking like a hardliner—the worst possible combination. He has done so unnecessarily. One struggles to recapture the sense of the 2016 campaign. In retrospect, it seems like something out of Homeric times, with almost supernatural forces intervening in the affairs of men. Everything had to break Donald Trump’s way; Hillary Clinton had to make every possible mistake. Somehow, everything happened exactly the way it had to, leading to one of the most remarkable upsets in American political history.

During both the primary and general election, candidate Trump seemed to run as much against the Republican as the Democratic party. Some of his promises had cross-party appeal—notably his calls for a massive infrastructure program and his pledge to protect certain entitlements. His health care proposals were admittedly vague, as he simultaneously promised to repeal Obamacare and replace it with “something great.” However, because President Trump had directly attacked the policy preferences of Republicans such as Speaker Paul Ryan and free-market institutions such as the Club for Growth, it seemed reasonable to believe he could lead the GOP away from the unpopular, wonkish economic policies that had little appeal outside the Beltway Right. The victory of President Trump was a victory for right-wing critics of Conservatism Inc., as he showed that its support for a liberal immigration policy, an interventionist foreign policy, and slashing entitlements had no real support among the conservative grassroots, let alone the larger public.

Yet since taking office, with rare exceptions, President Trump has governed like just another Republican. The president’s first major legislative initiative was a disastrous attempt to replace Obamacare. It is not surprising that President Trump did not have a specific “great” plan regarding healthcare, yet the conservative establishment’s failure to provide a workable alternative to Obamacare is testament to its uselessness.”

Conservative columnist Ann Coulter, once a pro-Trump campaigner, is now a critic

Demographic Realities

Since the election, the press has been making much of how demographics are turning formerly red states (Republicans) into blue states (Democrats). This is entirely due to mass immigration. The US takes in over 1 million legal immigrants every year. About 90% of these people are non-white.

My own Congressional district in northern Virginia (VA-10) is indicative of this. It went for the Democrats for the first time in 40 years. Conservative Republican Frank Wolf won the seat in the Reagan landslide of 1980 and didn’t relinquish it until he retired in 2014. That year, moderate Republican Barbara Comstock (who favors high immigration) won the seat by 16 points (56% to 40%) over her Democratic challenger. In 2016, her margin of victory was only 5.5 points. This year she lost by a margin of 56% to 44% to liberal Democrat Jennifer Wexton.

While there are many reasons for her loss, the main one is this. In 2008, VA-10 was 80% white. It is now 65% white.

Virginia used to be a rural, Southern and conservative state. It is now less than 56% white. Republicans have not won a state-wide election since 2009. This same trend is about to turn once solidly red states such as Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and even Texas blue. Orange County, California (outside Los Angeles) used to be perhaps the most reliably conservative district in the nation. It was the home of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. Yet it now has all Democrat representatives in Congress.

In terms of the 2020 elections, President Trump still has time to right the ship. Building his promised border wall with Mexico would be a great first step. He has also mentioned ending birthright citizenship (where children born in the US – even to illegals – are automatically given US citizenship) and affirmative action. If his actions can match his talking and threats, Trump can win reelection. But after 2020, demographics may permanently sweep the GOP away at the national level.

James Knight writes from increasingly vibrant northern Virginia.

Political establishment humiliated in Bavarian election

Horst Seehofer (right) with Chancellor Angela Merkel: the ruling CSU was rejected by Bavarian voters yesterday after Seehofer’s inconsistent stance on immigration

The latest in a series of historic defeats for Europe’s political establishment saw German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s partners in the Christian Social Union (CSU) fall to a humilating defeat in the Bavarian regional elections.

Ever since the creation of Bismarck’s Germany in 1871 Bavaria has had a unique position as a Catholic region in a majority-Protestant state and has almost always been ruled by Catholic-conservative parties. In postwar arrangements that grew out of Anglo-American military occupation, the Christian Democrats (CDU) are the main conservative party in fifteen of Germany’s sixteen regions or länder, while the CSU operates as the CDU’s Catholic partner in Bavaria.

CSU leader Horst Seehofer is Interior Minister in Merkel’s cabinet, and for more than a year he has been trying to distance himself from her disastrous immigration policies. However Bavaria’s voters saw through Seehofer’s inconsistency: if he really disagreed so much with Merkel’s determination to admit hordes of migrants, he should have split the CDU-CSU alliance and brought down the government. Seehofer cannot continue to serve in such a senior government role, then when it suits him avoid responsibility for government policy.

Seehofer’s CSU polled its worst result since 1950, down from 47.6% to 37.2%, finishing eighteen seats short of a majority.

Alternative für Deutschland (AfD – Alternative for Germany) – the anti-immigration party that was created just after the previous Bavarian elections in 2013 – achieved 10.2% and will have 22 seats in the new Bavarian parliament (Landtag). AfD now has members in every regional parliament except Hesse (the region that includes Frankfurt), where the newly-created party narrowly missed out at the September 2013 Landtag election, polling 4.1%, below the 5% threshold required to obtain seats. AfD is confident of winning seats at the next election in Hesse, which is on October 28th. Opinion polls suggest AfD’s Hesse vote will be between 10% and 14%.

 

Since there is no chance of the CSU agreeing to coalition talks with AfD, the ruling party will now seek a deal with the so-called ‘Free Voters’ (FW), a loosely-knit grouping of regionalist parties that will have a shopping list of demands representing particular local interests. FW’s platform is anti-immigration, but not so strongly as AfD, and their support can probably by bought by CSU concessions on specific issues (e.g. opposition to a third runway at Munich’s international airport).

The big question know is whether this latest electoral humiliation will signal the end for Angela Merkel. Armin Gastl, CSU leader in the central Munich constituency, said: “Voters are abandoning us chiefly because of Merkel. I hope she will step down—she is a woman of the past, not a woman of the future. This is the twilight of the chancellor.”

 

Lewisham East parliamentary by-election: the end of civic nationalism?

David Kurten, former UKIP leadership candidate humiliated in Lewisham by-election

Yesterday’s parliamentary by-election in the SE London constituency of Lewisham East was another tragi-comic episode in the slow death of the United Kingdom Independence Party.

Under the leadership of Nigel Farage, UKIP won more votes and seats than any other party at the 2014 European Parliamentary elections, ending up with 24 MEPs, though never gaining more than two MPs in the House of Commons. The party was primarily responsible for forcing then Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron to concede a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, resulting in the historic Brexit vote of 2016.

But that was the beginning of the end for UKIP. Structural problems and ideological confusion (already analysed in several issues of H&D well before 2016) were never properly addressed even under Farage’s leadership, and since his departure immediately after the referendum the party has been scarred by factional infighting and incompetent leadership.

Yesterday was merely the latest demonstration of UKIP’s desperate state. Their by-election candidate was one of their highest profile and most experienced performers, half-caste London Assembly member David Kurten, but he finished a poor sixth with only 380 votes (1.7%), behind not only the big three parties and the Greens, but also behind the Women’s Equality Party!

Tess Culnane – polled more votes in a single Lewisham ward than UKIP managed yesterday across the entire seven-ward constituency of Lewisham East

To put this into context, H&D readers should remember that in 2002 BNP local election candidates Barry Roberts and Tess Culnane polled more votes in a single ward of Lewisham East than Mr Kurten managed yesterday across the entire constituency (which contains seven wards)!

The only good news for UKIP is that Kurten finished ahead of his former colleague Anne Marie Waters. She had been UKIP candidate for this constituency at the 2015 General Election, polling a very creditable 3,886 votes (9.1%) in what were admittedly far better times nationwide for the party. After an acrimonious leadership election last year, Ms Waters quit and with the help of former BNP and EDL activists created a breakaway party called the For Britain Movement.

Yesterday Ms Waters finished a poor seventh, with only 266 votes (1.2%). Her only excuse is that Labour called the by-election very quickly after the resignation of the previous MP, so Ms Waters and her campaign team (which included former East London BNP election guru Eddy Butler) had very little time. Yet it must be admitted that the Liberal Democrats also had very little time, yet they succeeded in building a serious bandwagon and advancing to second place: having lost their deposit twelve months ago with only 4.4%, the Lib Dems polled 24.6% yesterday.

Anne Marie Waters on the by-election campaign trail with former BNP election guru Eddy Butler (third left, back row) and an activist team including several former BNP officials and councillors, whose help could not save Ms Waters from a crushing defeat.

The inescapable conclusion is that the Lib Dem message (almost entirely focused on pro-Remain voters) resonated strongly with a certain section of the Lewisham electorate. We know that there is a different section of the Lewisham electorate who respond to nationalist issues, including immigration and law and order, but the Islam-obsessed campaigns of Kurten and Waters failed to resonate similarly among those voters. This was despite Ms Waters’ ally ‘Tommy Robinson’, founder of the EDL, getting himself jailed during the campaign and creating worldwide publicity. Proof yet again that there is a big difference between Facebook likes, or turning out screaming mobs in Whitehall, and the serious grown-up politics of winning votes.

It probably didn’t help that Lewisham is an odd place to bang on about Muslims: the area has many immigration-related problems, but relatively few of the large non-White population here are Muslims.

The third civic nationalist candidate, Massimo DiMambro of the new Democrats & Veterans party, was always going to be overshadowed by the far higher profile and better financed campaigns of Kurten and Walters: he managed only 67 votes (0.3%).

However the Democrats & Veterans party, which is much less Islam-obsessed than either UKIP or For Britain, but takes a strong line on immigration and other nationalist issues, seems to be having more success than Ms Waters’ party in building a network of branches nationwide.

The best bet is that UKIP-style civic nationalism is dying, but when the dust settles Democrats & Veterans might be the one viable civic nationalist party still capable of making a challenge (at least for local council seats).

 

Local Elections 2018: suspended Tory ‘racist’ gains seat

Votes were counted in councils across most of England overnight and today. (click here for full updated list of nationalist results)

So far the best nationalist result was achieved by Dr Jim Lewthwaite of the British Democrats: a very creditable vote in difficult circumstances in Wyke ward, Bradford, defeating both UKIP and the ex-UKIP party Democrats & Veterans.  Jim finished third of seven candidates with 161 votes (5.5%), a substantial advance on the 2.8% he polled in 2014.

Another excellent result (but in this case benefiting from UKIP’s absence) was achieved by former BNP organiser Steven Smith who polled 171 votes (14.8%) to finish third in Brunshaw ward, Burnley.

Joe Owens, a former NF and BNP activist who for several years was Nick Griffin’s bodyguard, was another independent candidate polling well.  Mr Owens stood as an Independent for Kensington & Fairfield ward, Liverpool, finishing third of six candidates with 4.9% of the vote (ahead of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats).

But another ex-BNP independent, millionaire businessman Paul Cromie, was badly beaten in Queensbury ward, Bradford, where he finished third in a seat which he had held since 2006.

Dr Jim Lewthwaite of the British Democrats achieved the best nationalist result this year

All of the BNP votes so far have been down from the 2014 equivalents, even where candidates were lucky enough to have no UKIP opponent.  In the party’s last remaining London stronghold of SE London, Bexley BNP organiser Michael Jones polled 9.5% (down from 10.2%) with no UKIP opponent in East Wickham ward, and his colleague Pamela Mackie similarly benefited from UKIP’s disappearance, polling 6.5% (down from 8.0%) in Erith ward.

Almost all BNP candidates finished bottom of the poll in their respective areas, but significant exceptions were the brothers John and Dave Clarke, who polled 7.1% and 4.8% in the two New Addington wards of Croydon (where boundary changes make direct comparisons impossible).

Carl Mason, sole council candidate for British Resistance, the party founded by ex-UKIP candidate Jack Sen, polled 17 votes (0.8%) in Nunnery ward, Worcester, up from 0.4% last time. A commendable effort, but it would be unwise for his party to make too much of this doubling in support since 2014!

In the Outer East London borough of Havering, where there were some exceptionally crowded ballot papers due to a profusion of independent and post-UKIP parties, Denise Underwood of the BNP finished 12th of 13 candidates with 123 votes (2.5%) in St Andrew’s, while Kevin Layzell of the National Front had the worst luck of any nationalist this year, up against a full UKIP slate in addition to many other parties and independents: he finished 18th of 18 with 50 votes (1.3%). Meanwhile the NF’s former deputy chairman Graham Williamson, once a leading figure in Patrick Harrington’s Third Way faction, who has now reinvented himself as a multiracialist, was easily re-elected in South Hornchurch as an independent residents councillor.  His former Third Way colleague Dave Durant was similarly re-elected as an independent residents councillor for Rainham & Wennington. Their group has six councillors, but apart from Williamson and Durant has no connection to any nationalist movement (in fact one of their group is an Afro-Caribbean).

NF veteran Richard Edmonds was (like his Havering colleague Kevin Layzell) up against a full UKIP slate, so it was no great surprise when he polled 1.7%, but the two NF votes in North West England were more disappointing, as they had no UKIP opponents. H&D understands that partly for business reasons, party chairman Kevin Bryan was unable to leaflet his ward, and he paid the price, polling only 4.6% in Irwell ward, Rossendale, where he had managed 10.2% in 2016 and 16% in 2012.

Suspended Tory Antony Mullen was elected in Barnes ward, Sunderland

Perhaps the most sensational early result was in the former Labour bastion of Sunderland.

Antony Mullen had been suspended as Conservative candidate for Barnes ward, Sunderland, after allegations of ‘racist’ and ‘sexist’ social media posts.  He remained on the ballot paper as official Conservative candidate despite being disowned by the party, as it was too late legally to remove him.

H&D are delighted to confirm that Mr Mullen gained the Barnes ward seat from Labour tonight, in one of the first results to be declared.  Clearly Sunderland’s voters do not share politically correct obsessions.

Elsewhere in Sunderland (where UKIP has now completely disappeared) the first result for ex-UKIP leadership candidate Anne Marie Waters’s new party For Britain was very disappointing.  Despite facing no competition from UKIP or any eurosceptic / civic nationalist party, Andrew Cox of For Britain polled only 6.5% in the Washington North ward, finishing fourth of five candidates.  This is a ward where UKIP polled 31% at the equivalent election four years ago.

The results so far have been a disaster for Ms Waters and a demonstration that the future of post-UKIP politics does not lie with the Islam-obsessed wing of civic nationalism. So far it appears that Democrats & Veterans (DVP) might have a better claim than For Britain to take over what remains of the UKIP vote. In Cross Gates & Whinmoor ward, Leeds, For Britain had disowned their candidate following yet another social media ‘scandal’, and they finished well behind not only UKIP but also DVP. In another Leeds ward, Armley, For Britain finished ahead of DVP but both were near the bottom of the poll; while in Bramley & Stanningley (where they had no rivals for the post-UKIP vote) For Britain expected to make an impact but came last with 9.3%.

Another Leeds ward where For Britain had no competition from UKIP or DVP was Farnley & Wortley, but here they polled only 3.0%; in Garforth & Swillington the result was worse still: bottom of the poll with 2.0%; and a miserable night for Anne Marie Waters’ supposedly strongest branch was completed in Otley & Yeadon with 2.8%.

In Sandwell – the Black Country council which For Britain’s main target area – their candidate finished a distant third in Great Barr with Yew Tree ward polling 8.8% despite having no UKIP opponent.  (UKIP had polled 33.6% here in 2014.)  Similarly in Newton ward, again with no UKIP opponent, For Britain were bottom of the poll with 10.2%, compared to UKIP’s 2014 vote of 30.1%. The only crumb of comfort for Ms Waters was in Charlemont with Grove Vale ward, where For Britain with 5.2% finished slightly ahead of the dying UKIP on 4.4%. Yet even the two parties combined support today is less than a third of the old UKIP vote in this ward (33.6%).

In Castle ward, Hastings, another area where UKIP has disappeared, the two rival post-UKIP parties each contested Castle ward: DVP finished with 3.2% to For Britain’s 2.6%.

Tom Commis (second left) with fellow Burnley UKIP councillor Alan Hosker, was a rare UKIP winner today

In Brookfield ward, Preston, where the H&D team had a pint or two earlier this evening, UKIP’s vote collapsed from 33% in 2014 to 12.4% today – another indication of what is sure to be a nationwide disaster for UKIP this year.  Similarly in the editor’s home ward of Ribbleton, UKIP’s vote collapsed from 32.7% to 9.8%. One of UKIP’s highest profile members, West Midlands MEP Bill Etheridge, lost his council seat in Sedgley ward, Dudley.  UKIP were wiped out across this borough, where they had won the largest share of the vote and seven seats in 2014. Mr Etheridge said he would quit politics unless UKIP changed its leader before the next elections. He is currently facing disciplinary action because of his attendance at an alleged pro-Putin forum in the Crimea last month.

So far UKIP has won only three council seats nationwide, compared to 166 in 2014. Only one of these three was a previous UKIP seat: Alvaston ward, Derby, where energetic campaigner Alan Graves won a superbly increased majority, in stark contrast to his party’s woeful performance nationwide. In nearby Boulton ward, UKIP sensationally ousted Ranjit Banwait, the Labour leader of Derby City Council.

The third UKIP winner was Tom Commis, who gained a seat from Labour in the former BNP stronghold of Hapton with Park, Burnley.  Cllr Commis joins his UKIP colleague Alan Hosker, who is both a borough and county councillor for the same area.  Labour’s Joanne Greenwood is her party’s only survivor in Hapton, and will surely be nervous when she comes up for re-election next year, even if Burnley is the only UKIP branch left in the country by then!

Only one of the sixteen Thurrock Independents (ex-UKIP councillors who had quit the party in January, kept his seat – that was MEP Tim Aker, who for the time being still represents UKIP in Brussels but was opposed by UKIP in this week’s council election.

The Labour leadership’s problems with alleged ‘antisemitism’ was reflected in one early result, where Labour lost Kersal ward, Salford, one of the most Jewish wards in England.  The rest of Salford has far fewer Jews, so the Kersal result will have no effect on Labour’s control of the city. A more significant Jewish landslide against Labour was in the London Borough of Barnet, where loss of Jewish support is likely to prevent Labour gaining control.

Meanwhile in the Lancashire borough of Pendle, outgoing BNP councillor Brian Parker had endorsed the Labour candidate in his old Marsden ward, but it was won by the Tory – and this was enough to give the Tories control of Pendle council after they  readmitted a councillor who had been suspended last year for a ‘racist’ Facebook post.

 

Nationalist candidates at 2018 local elections

Tess Culnane, BNP candidate for Downham ward, Lewisham

Regular H&D readers will not be surprised to see only a small number of nationalist candidates at this year’s local elections, even though the London borough councils were up for election, which usually means a big increase in candidates from a normal year. We are in a transitional period, with UKIP in terminal decline, but its remnants still blocking the way for the re-emergence of a large scale nationalist effort.

The big story was the retirement of long serving BNP councillor Brian Parker, who stood down in Marsden ward, Pendle. There was no new BNP candidate to replace Mr Parker, so the party gave up its last borough council seat. All bar one of the remaining BNP candidates this year were in London, and almost all finished bottom of the poll, the main exceptions being brothers John and Dave Clarke who achieved credible results in Croydon, and Tess Culnane in Downham ward, Lewisham, who defeated a full slate from the ex-UKIP party Democrats & Veterans.

The highest BNP vote was for Michael Jones in East Wickham ward, Bexley, who had no UKIP or similar opponent, and the best nationalist vote overall was for ex-BNP organiser Steven Smith in Brunshaw ward, Burnley, who similarly had no UKIP or post-UKIP opposition.  Arguably the best performance however was by Dr Jim Lewthwaite in Wyke ward, Bradford, who doubled his vote and finished ahead of both UKIP and the breakaway ex-UKIP party Democrats & Veterans.

The list below shows the result for every nationalist candidate that we know of, and will be updated if further information arrives.

see also report and analysis here

BNP: 16 candidates

London Borough of Barking & Dagenham
Eastbrook – Tony McKay – 158 votes (5,2%, -1.2) – 8th of 8
Goresbrook – Bede Smith – 246 votes (10.8%, -3.1) – 7th of 7

London Borough of Bexley
East Wickham – Michael Jones – 398 votes (9.5%, -0.7) – 7th of 7
Erith – Pamela Mackie – 154 votes (6.5%, -2.5) – 5th of 5
Falconwood & Welling – Jaymie McCoy – 101 votes (1.9%, -7.0) – 12th of 12
Northumberland Heath – Robert Howard – 160 votes (5.1%, -7.0) – 6th of 6
Sidcup – John Brooks – 130 votes (2.6%, -1.5), 12th of 13

London Borough of Croydon
New Addington N – John Clarke – 142 votes (7.1%) – 5th of 8
New Addington S – Dave Clarke – 131 votes (4.8%) – 6th of 8
Selsdon & Addington Village – Michael Collard – 42 votes (1.1%) – 9th of 9

London Borough of Ealing
Northolt West End – David Furness – 180 votes (4.5%, -3.7) – 10th of 13

Royal Borough of Greenwich
Coldharbour & New Eltham – Cliff Adams – 123 votes (2.8%, -5.3) – 12th of 12

London Borough of Havering
Saint Andrew’s – Denise Underwood – 123 votes (2.5%) – 12th of 13

London Borough of Hillingdon
West Drayton – Vincent Evans – 143 votes (3.6%) – 7th of 9

London Borough of Lewisham
Downham – Tess Culnane – 98 votes (2.9%) – 12th of 15

Exeter City Council
St Thomas – Chris Stone – 34 votes (1.2%, -0.2) – 5th of 5

 

National Front: 5 candidates

London Borough of Havering
Gooshays – Kevin Layzell – 50 votes (1.4%) – 18th of 18

London Borough of Sutton
St Helier – Richard Edmonds – 49 votes (1.7%) – 13th of 13

Calderdale Metropolitan Borough
Todmorden – Chris Jackson – 98 votes (2.7%) – 5th of 5

Rossendale Borough Council
Irwell – Kevin Bryan – 56 votes (4.6%) – 3rd of 3

Amber Valley Borough Council
Langley Mill & Aldercar – Tim Knowles – 30 votes (2.7%) – 4th of 4

 

British Democratic Party: 1 candidate

Bradford City Council
Wyke – Dr Jim Lewthwaite – 161 votes (5.5%, +2.7) – 3rd of 7

 

British Resistance: 1 candidate

Worcester City Council
Nunnery – Carl Mason – 17 votes (0.8%, +0.4) – 5th of 5

 

Independent nationalist candidates

Burnley Borough Council
Brunshaw – Steven Smith – 171 votes (14.8%) – 3rd of 4

Liverpool City Council
Kensington & Fairfield – Joe Owens – 114 votes (4.9%) – 3rd of 6

Manchester City Council
Crumpsall – John Rowe – 138 votes (3.4%) – 10th of 11

 

English Democrats: 4 candidates
(we include the EDs in this list because in recent years the party absorbed some former BNP members and therefore included some people who would be regarded by H&D readers as part of our movement; we should however make it clear that none of the candidates below are former BNP members)

Sheffield City Region Mayoralty
David Allen – 14,547 votes (5.6%) – 6th of 7

Barnsley Metropolitan Borough
Rockingham – Kevin Riddiough – 235 votes (11.1%, +8.7) – 3rd of 4

Bury Metropolitan Borough
Besses – Steve Morris – 169 votes (7.1%, -9.4) – 3rd of 5

Salford City Council
Swinton South – Craig Holmes – 163 votes (7.4%) – 3rd of 6

 

New “anti-fascist” party stumbles at first fence

For Britain founder Anne Marie Waters (left) promoting the launch of her earlier anti-Islam group PEGIDA alongside the EDL founder Tommy Robinson (centre) and Liberty GB’s Paul Weston

Former UKIP leadership candidate Anne-Marie Waters has succeeded in winning lots of publicity for her new party, the For Britain Movement, which she describes as “anti-fascist”.  According to its website, “For Britain is a party for everyone except racists, fascists, Marxists, collectivists and identitarians.”

Unfortunately Ms Waters’ “party for everyone” has failed to recruit many candidates for its first electoral outing. They have six candidates in Leeds, three in Sandwell, and one each in Hartlepool, Sunderland, Hart, Plymouth, Hastings and the London Borough of Bromley.

A far less publicised rival splinter group from UKIP – the ‘Democrats and Veterans Party’ founded by former leadership candidate John Rees-Evans – has succeeded in recruiting far more candidates than Ms Waters, despite only being registered as a party since the end of January.  There are more than forty ‘Democrats and Veterans’ candidates for various English councils, plus mayoral candidates in two London boroughs, while For Britain seems to have only fifteen candidates nationwide.

Even the Thurrock Independents – another UKIP breakaway who, as their name suggests, are only contesting Thurrock Borough Council – have more candidates than Ms Waters. It seems that Islam-obsessed “anti-fascism” has a very limited electoral appeal.

 

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